США прогнозируют Узбекистану "ливийский сценарий", а президенту Исламу Каримову - будущее Муамара Каддафи.
"....In all these ways, Uzbekistan is just like Qaddafi's Libya. It, however, has one asset Qaddafi lacked: It borders Afghanistan. The Pentagon needs transit routes to get supplies to U.S. troops there and eventually to get the troops out. It needs, in effect, a "yes-fly zone" over Uzbekistan. To buy access, the administration has asked Congress to waive human rights restrictions on military aid to Uzbekistan, which were imposed the last time the country's security forces shot protesters. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton flew to Tashkent, the Uzbek capital, two weeks ago to cement the relationship.
For years, successive administrations told the Uzbek government -- and its beleaguered opponents -- that aid would never be provided absent some improvement in human rights. Now the Uzbeks are in danger of learning what the Qaddafis once thought they knew: If you have something the Americans want, hold out -- they won't stand on principle forever. And therein lies the danger. If men like Karimov think American principles are malleable, they won't believe the United States the next time it threatens them with consequences for their misbehavior on human rights or any other issue.
If push came to shove, it would not be surprising if Obama placed the needs of 100,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan over the needs of Uzbek dissidents. This is the kind of choice realists tell us presidents must sometimes make. That said, I think that the administration could have driven a harder bargain with Uzbekistan. Karimov should not have had to be bribed to help the United States succeed in Afghanistan; he benefits from stability there, and his cronies already profit handsomely from U.S. military contracts.
Additionally, if they are set on being realists, U.S. officials should at least be realistic when discussing countries like Uzbekistan. Instead, they talk about incorporating its sclerotic economy into a "New Silk Road" linking Central Asia to Europe. They say they believe Karimov when he promises to leave a democratic country to his children -- just as some once harbored hopes about taming Qaddafi and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad".
Ислам Каримов встретит "поцелуи" кулаками