Анализируя политическую ситуацию в Турции, следует также учитывать мнение, складывающееся о происходящем у Германии - крупнейшем европейском партнёре Анкары.
В этой связи представляет интерес содержательная обзорная статья в "Шпигеле", опубликованная в преддверии парламентских выборов.
Отдельное внимание обратите на опыт турецких реформ. Они начались в 2002 года, с приходом к власти команды Эрдогана. Кстати, не намного раньше, как начался отсчёт "реформам" Саакашвили.
Правда, пока Мишико пиарился и устраивал "охоты на внешних врагов" - Эрдоган занимался конкретной работой. Как следствие, реформы в Турции уже дают первые плоды, которыми, кстати, активно пользуются не только турки, но и грузины.
Судите сами: среднегодовые темпы роста экономики Турции составляют +9% ВВП. Что привело к тому, как "анатолийский тигр" превратился в "Китай Европы".
Инфляция - главный бич предшествующих лет - в рекордные сроки была снижена с 30% до 4,3%.
Безработица - ещё одна массовая проблема - снижена до нынешних 11%. А доходы населения за 8 лет выросли в 3 раза!
Промышленное производство в Турции удвоилось в 2 раза.
В целом, турецкая экономика сейчас растёт в три раза быстрее, чем экономика ЕС.
Ещё одна тема для полезного примера - внешняя политика Турции. Анкара осуществляет одну из наиболее сбалансированных внешних политик в мире. Турция имеет ровные и дружественные отношения со ВСЕМИ странами мира. В том числе, с Грецией (для которой она является крупнейшим экспортёром вооружений) и Ираном. В последнее время начал сдвигаться процесс в установлении отношений с Арменией.
Итак, представляют интерес две темы: 1) опыт турецких реформ (это, безусловно, лучше, чем то, что делает Саакашвили - но уступает опыту модернизации Китая) и 2) внешняя политика Турции. В общем, впору задать закономерный вопрос:
Почему у Турции получилось? Turkish
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to win a third term in Sunday's
election. His hunger for power may be bad for Turkey's democracy, but he has
helped transform the country into an economic powerhouse. The once-promised EU
membership seems increasingly irrelevant for the rising power.
He walks up
to the podium, looking serious, and waits patiently until the applause
subsides. "Üstat! Üstat!" ("Teacher! Teacher!") they call
out, while clapping and whistling.
begins to speak. In conversations, his voice has become quieter and quieter the
longer he has been in power. Conversely, it sounds more powerful than ever when
he speaks in public. He greets his audience, calling them "kardesler"
("siblings"), a word that implies a much stronger sense of familiar
affection in Turkish than in English or German. Then he gets serious. He has a
plan to announce, one that his campaign strategists have already characterized
as an "insane project," an idea that exceeds all "powers of
not his words but the embellishments of his speechwriters. Recep Tayyip Erdogan
is responsible for the core of the matter. On this day in Istanbul, he unveils a project that he hopes
will secure him a place in the history books.
are seeds that sprout in reality," he says. "We have rolled up our
sleeves for this city, whose nights are filled with the scent of hyacinths. We
are giving it a new canal." Erdogan wants to dig a new canal between the
Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara, a second Bosporus, which is to be opened in
2023, on the 100th birthday of the TurkishRepublic.
a Big Majority
words make it clear that he is a master politician with long years of
experience. He no longer searches for issues that are likely to please voters
and be tolerated by the military. When he gives a speech today, every word has
an impact. And when he says provocative things -- such as calling the
opposition leader a semi-infidel, accusing generals of treason or telling the
Israeli president: "When it comes to killing, you know very well how to
kill" -- these are no longer gaffes. In fact, he knows exactly what he is
who grew up in the Istanbul district of Kasimpasa on the Golden Horn, back when
it was still a cesspool, has now been in power longer than US President Barack
Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and most
of the other world leaders he encounters at G-20 summits. He has won two
elections with triumphant majorities, and he is more than likely to win a third
term in Sunday's elections. The only question is how big his margin of victory
If it's only
enough to secure half of the seats in the parliament, he will have to make
compromises regarding the new constitution he hopes to introduce. But if his
margin of victory is big enough to secure three-fifths of seats, he will be
able to write this constitution himself, although it would still have to be
submitted to the people for a referendum.
And if he
wins a two-thirds majority, which is not impossible, he probably won't even
have to do that. And if that happens, Erdogan will be what his opponents and
supporters alike already call him today: the Sultan, the Padishah of Turkey.
achieved a lot. He has taken the fight out of Turkey's powerful military brass,
demoralized the secular elites and straightened out the cotton kings and
concrete tycoons who once amicably divided up the country with the generals. He
has built up Turkey,
traditionally a country of coups and crises, into a regional power. He is taken
seriously as an important player in London and Washington, just as he is in Riyadh
And even Israel
-- with whom he has picked fights, much to the delight of Arabs -- follows his
every step with great attention. Erdogan has provided the Turks, even those who
can't stand him, with a self-confidence they lacked before.
Empire was once known as the "Sick Man on the Bosporus," but today's Turkey looks
very healthy indeed. After eight years of Erdogan, it is much richer and more
modern than the poor country that applied to join what was then known as the
European Community more than 20 years ago. Its economy is growing three times
as fast as those of other European countries. Driving from the western part of Turkey into the eastern provinces of Bulgaria and Romania,
one wonders which side of the border the affluent part of Europe is actually on.
At the same
has become more bigoted. The Islamists in the government harass their opponents
with at least as much implacability as they were once harassed. They bully
artists and celebrities who do not share their worldview, they gag media
companies whose newspapers are critical of the administration, and they have
journalists tossed into prison on absurd charges.
It is time
for Europe to rethink how it actually wants to treat this powerful and difficult
neighbor: to take it seriously and align itself with Turkey,
stall it for another 20 years or tell it that it has nothing in common with Europe and its predominantly Christian and Western
orientation. It is time to take stock of the situation, because the parameters
of one of the most torturous and protracted European debates have changed
fundamentally in recent years.
'The Government Gave Us Nothing'
Gaziantep, a fast-growing industrial city about 1,150 kilometers
southeast of Istanbul, gray factory buildings stretch endlessly along the
highway, as columns of buses and trucks rumble across the asphalt. This is the
right place to witness what is behind Turkey's rise to 17th place among
the largest economies in the world. Today Gaziantep,
once known for not much more than its eggplant kebabs and pistachio trees, is
one of the "Anatolian tigers," as the dynamic economic centers of the
Turkish hinterlands are known. The city's industrial production has doubled
since 2005, and in 2008 it exported goods worth $3.9 billion (€2.67 billion).
Cahit Nakiboglu, 63, a stout man with a
moustache and glasses, played a key role in shaping the economic miracle in Gaziantep. He is the head
of Naksan Holding, the third-largest maker of plastic bags in Europe.
His customers have included Germany's
Plus supermarket chain, the Pierre Cardin fashion house and furniture giant
Ikea. "The government gave us nothing," says Nakiboglu. "For
decades, all it did was put obstacles in our way."
changed in 2002, when Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) came into
power. A severe financial crisis had driven the country to the brink of ruin in
2001. Kemal Dervis, a Turkish executive at the World Bank who was recently
mentioned as a possible successor to International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, introduced a massive debt-restructuring program. The
AKP government reaped the fruits of his labor. Turkey's average economic growth
had increased to 6 percent by 2007, and hardly any other country recovered as
successfully from the 2008 and 2009 global financial crisis.
spiritual predecessors, who had dreamed of an "Islamic economic
order," Erdogan did not see capitalism and Islam as contradictions. Guided
by the interests of the rising Muslim middle class, the AKP's most important
group of voters, the new prime minister set out to open up the country's
Part 2: The
China of Europe
Turkey achieved a growth rate of 9 percent
last year. Unemployment has fallen to 11 percent, inflation is now down to 6
percent, and the most recent figures showed total public debt at 41 percent of
gross domestic product -- a figure that most European Union countries can be
envious of. Per capita income has tripled since Erdogan came into office. The
British magazine The Economist has dubbed the country "the China of
example of Gaziantep shows, the large cities in
are no longer the only ones benefiting from the boom. Anyone who visited cities
like Denizli, Kayseri, Trabzon
and Samsun 10
years ago would hardly recognize them today. City highways, skyscrapers and new
port facilities are being built, and the Turkish state railway plans to
inaugurate a new high-speed line between Eskisehir
and Konya at
the end of the year.
concern on the eve of Erdogan's third election victory is that the economy is
becoming overheated, that the Turks are buying and producing too much, and that
imports are so high that they even exceed the country's growing exports.
"Despite the imbalances," writes the Wall Street Journal, the
strength of the Turkish boom is sustainable: "The growth story can
Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank, ranks Istanbul at the top of its list of the 30
most dynamic cities in the world. No one knows whether there are 15 million or
perhaps already 17 million people living in the megacity on the Bosporus. New skyscrapers, each one more avant-garde than
the next, are constantly going up in Istanbul's
business districts, while the satellite towns on the outskirts are continually
growing as more people migrate to the city. Most of these new arrivals are able
to find work.
the days when the only people flocking to the Bosporus were tea pickers from
the Black Sea and refugees from the troubled
Kurdish regions. Europeans and Americans have also discovered
"Istancool," the most modern city in the Islamic world, a city that
never sleeps. Among the new arrivals are people whose parents and grandparents
once emigrated to faraway Germany
in search of a better life. Germans of Turkish descent, derided in Turkey as "Almancilar" (literally
"Germanyers"), are discovering that the city is much more dynamic
than anything they could find in Germany.
these children of guest workers is Nese Stegemann, 43, a doctor specializing in
orthopedics and surgery, who is married to a German and characterizes herself
as "about as German as it gets." When she flew to Istanbul with her family two years ago,
Stegemann was overwhelmed by the wealth of cultural contrasts, the galleries,
exhibitions, designer outlets, mosques and bazaars. She was offered a job in a
private hospital. She accepted, and today she earns more than she did at home
is just one of thousands. The number of Turkish-Germans returning to the
country of their forefathers has long outnumbered the number of Turks heading
In 2009, the most recent year for which figures are available, they totaled
40,000. Many of them are highly qualified and extremely well adjusted to the
globalized world, in which being rooted in two cultures is seen as a career
Europeans see the Turks as an alien people who have far too many children. But
is the cliché of the "demographic bomb," one of the favored arguments
of those who oppose Turkey
joining the EU, even true anymore? Turkey,
unlike Europe's aging societies, has a very healthy population pyramid
resembling that of the United States
In recent years, the birthrate has declined to 2.1 children per woman.
This is a
development that results from growing affluence and improved education levels.
Demographers even predict a population decline in Turkey starting in 2030, a prospect that
prompted Prime Minister Erdogan to say that every Turkish woman ought to have
at least three children in the future. But Turkish women have no intention of
complying with his wishes.
doesn't even need a high birthrate. The average age is currently 29 (compared
to 43 in
and roughly 700,000 university graduates enter the job market every year. Turkey has
almost exactly the rate of replenishment it needs for stable economic growth:
not too low and not too high. At any rate, the overpopulation scenarios of
anxious Europeans are greatly exaggerated.
strongest argument in favor of Turkey
joining the EU is a different one. Americans and the British have been using it
for years, but so have Germans like former Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, former
Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and Ruprecht Polenz, a foreign policy expert with
Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). It is
the geostrategists' argument, and it goes like this: What better leverage does
Europe have to influence developments in the Islamic world than through
relations with its most modern nation, Turkey?
Relations with Neighbors
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu recently bought a house in Meram, an exclusive
residential neighborhood in the Anatolian city of Konya. Last week, his first guest at the
house was the vali, or governor, of Konya,
largest province. After that, he met with SPIEGEL journalists for an interview.
comes from the region, but he says that he hadn't been in Konya more than 10 times in the last five
years. In fact, he says, he has recently traveled to Damascus much more often -- about 60 times,
a mild-mannered man with strong convictions, supports his country's strategic
has good relations with almost all of its neighbors today. In recent years,
Turkish diplomats participated in negotiations in the Azerbaijani capital Baku over the construction of the Nabucco pipeline, which
is supposed to transport natural gas to Europe, in Tehran
over the Iranian nuclear program, and in Tripoli
with the tottering Gadhafi regime. Turkish businesspeople are building airports
in northern Iraq, high-rises
in Mecca and seawater desalination plants in Libya.
foreign and economic policy has been dubbed "Neo-Ottomanism," another
term that triggers anxiety in the West. Are the Turks trying to rebuild the
empire that controlled the Middle East for 400
are exaggerated. At most, what will materialize is nothing more than a loose
commonwealth of former Ottoman provinces. What is important, however, is the
Turkish example that is being transmitted into a politically backward region.
It is proof positive that even an Islamic government can be democratic, and
that it doesn't take oil revenues to build affluence.
connections are also important. From Baghdad to Tripoli, they are talking to radical groups and
individuals which the West does not talk to, either for fundamental reasons or
out of political consideration for Israel, but which one day it may
need to engage with. They include the Palestinian group Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon and
Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr.
unlikely that the Turks could turn away from the West. Despite serious crises, Ankara has not severed its relations with Israel. And
even though he felt rudely overlooked by France in the military operation
against Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, Prime Minister Erdogan did not withdraw
from the Western alliance. Instead, Turkey is doing its part to implement the
United Nations Security Council resolution on Libya -- with a greater
commitment, in fact, than its NATO partner Germany.
This is one
side of today's Turkey:
economically strong, dynamic, self-confident and loyal to its allies.
Indiscriminate Use of State Power
supporter of the Turkish prime minister says that he admires how the irascible
Erdogan now manages to keep his temper under control. At the same time, it is
interesting that the man is unwilling to be quoted on the record. It offers a
small insight into a serious liability in Erdogan's Turkey: Its leader has a problem
with authority. He can't get enough of it.
premier, says Sedat Ergin, the head of the Ankara office of the Turkish daily newspaper
Hürriyet for many years, entered his first term eight years ago with great
caution. He took stock of his adversaries in the army, the economy and the
press, says Ergin, but he also treated them with respect. "He was decisive
in advancing his policies, but he also exercised restraint," he says.
According to Ergin, this changed after Erdogan's second election victory in
2007. "That was when he started using the power of the state more
what he's talking about. The more critical newspapers were in their reporting
on the government, the more sharply did the prime minister's office, the
Basbakanlik, strike back. A cartoonist who took the liberty of portraying the
prime minister as a cat found himself facing charges in court. The same thing
happened soon afterwards to another cartoonist, who had drawn Erdogan as a
blood-sucking tick on the back of a respectable citizen, as a comment on the
government's taxation policies.
Group, which owns the secular Hürriyet and the Turkish division of the US news
broadcaster CNN, was particularly hard-hit. In 2009, a dozen tax
inspectors descended on the company. When they were finished with their audit,
Dogan was slapped with an order to pay the government the equivalent of €2.2
billion ($3.2 billion).
the problem with Erdogan," says Ergin. "He is using the power of the
state more and more arbitrarily to promote his political interests. There is no
one left to keep him in check."
In 2008, a group of former
senior military leaders were put on trial for allegedly plotting to overthrow
the Erdogan regime in its early years. The so-called Ergenekon trial, named,
like the group of conspirators, after the mythical ancestral home of the Turks
in Central Asia, had a cathartic effect on the
people. For the first time, the previously untouchable officers were facing
charges in a court of law.
longer the trial dragged on, the wider the government cast its net, arresting
professors, civil servants, attorneys and journalists opposed to the regime. In
March, the astonished nation realized that what had been an important trial had
turned into a vehicle with which the regime was eliminating its influential
critics. That was when the police arrested and filed terrorism charges against
investigative reporter Ahmet Sik, the journalist who had been one of the first
to report on the Ergenekon group's alleged plans to overthrow the government,
but then also looked at the pro-government Islamist network. Sik, along with 67
other journalists and dozens of professors, is still in prison today.
self-aggrandizement, the premier who introduced historic change to Turkey,
could become a growing liability for his country. His critics say that there is
now little difference between Erdogan and Russia's strongman, Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin. Of course, Russia
hasn't applied for EU membership, but Turkey has. The prime minister's
power trip is now backfiring on the Turks, increasing opposition to Turkey joining the
man is dangerous," says Celal Sengör, 56, a renowned seismologist.
He experienced firsthand how the AKP intervenes in the autonomy of academia. In
2009, Sengör, the dean of Istanbul
who holds a critical stance toward Islam, was told that he was being let go --
without any explanation or dismissal procedure. It was only the intervention of
the president of the International Academy of Science that saved him from
losing his job. Since then, Sengör has been even more disillusioned than he was
before. "Europe shouldn't be naïve,"
he says. "Turkey
simply isn't ready to be a true democracy."
Sengör, who belong to Turkey's urban elite, are shocked when they open their
morning newspapers to read horror stories from the provinces: of religious
fanatics who sprayed acid onto the exposed legs of schoolgirls in Mersin; of a
young woman near Malatya who was buried alive because she allegedly had a
boyfriend; and of the rapes of two sisters in Siirt by almost 100 men.
brutality with which women are treated is as old as Turkey itself, and the previous
regimes failed just as miserably when it came to protecting the victims. But
between 2002 and 2009, the number of violent acts and so-called honor killings
rose from 66 to 953. A
woman dies every day, say human rights activists. The AKP argues that the
figures are so high because more murders are now being reported and documented.
Binnaz Toprak acknowledges this as a possibility, but she also has another
explanation: "The pressure to behave devoutly, to pray regularly, to fast
and not to drink alcohol, has gone up. Society has become more
conservative." A climate has developed in which women are no longer seen
on the streets after dark outside the big cities, a climate in which some feel
emboldened to interpret verses of the Koran in a misogynistic way.
analysis confirms the suspicions of secular Turks and skeptical Europeans that
a broad segment of Turkish society espouses a view of the world and of women
that is incompatible with that of the West. This casts a dark shadow over Turkey as an EU
the argument over whether Turkey
should join the EU comes down slightly in favor of the eternal accession
candidate, a reflection of the mixed feelings that Europeans have had toward
their complicated neighbor for decades. Nevertheless, from a rational point of
view, wouldn't the pros outweigh the cons if Turkey were to join the European
family? Hasn't it made impressive progress in the 12 years since it formally
became a candidate and began efforts to satisfy the EU's criteria? And wouldn't
closer ties to Europe be the best way to
prevent this progress from being reversed?
likely that the Europeans and the Turks will continue to spend years talking at
cross-purposes, but without expressing the two truths that everyone knows by
now: that Europe doesn't want Turkey
-- and that soon Turkey will
no longer need Europe.