Азиатские тигры (igor_tiger) wrote,
Азиатские тигры

КНДР. Западные месседжи

Китай не может удерживать
Северную Корею.


Месседж Корее
Лучший способ избежать новую
Корейскую войну – предупреждать северокорейские провокации.

Сокращение американского
контингента в Р.Корее этому не способствует.


….The United States
cannot deter a war if it is not prepared to fight and win one. With fewer than
20,000 soldiers on the peninsula, America
is ill-prepared for such a conflict, even if it lets South Korean forces do the
heavy lifting during what could be an arduous slog to the Yalu River.
Should Beijing decide to intervene to ensure
that allied forces never reach the Yalu, the shortsightedness and
irresponsibility of U.S.
force deployment decisions over the last decade will be borne out.

The potential for a conventional war on the Korean peninsula is an
unfortunate reality. That American forces are not properly postured to fight in
a renewed Korean War makes such a conflict more likely to occur and less likely
to end quickly. There are, of course, monetary and political costs in the United States, Japan
and South Korea for
increasing troop presence on the peninsula and for canceling plans to relocate
Marines from Okinawa. But the military and
civilian casualties that would be averted if North Korea is successfully
deterred from further aggression — or, should deterrence fail, if the allies
achieve a quick victory in an unwanted war — should be worth the cost in
dollars and political capital.

In order to avoid the war that nobody wants, U.S. forces must be prepared to
fight and win.

Затраты на объединение
Корейского полуострова будут огромны


The price tag will be $2
trillion to $5 trillion over 30 years, says Peter Beck, a senior fellow with
the Atlantic Council in Washington.

A South Korean presidential
committee puts it between $322 billion and $2.1 trillion.

But come on, the cost of
German reunification — about $2 trillion and counting — suggest even $5
trillion is optimistic.

East Germans were far more
connected to the global economy than North Koreans. Poverty is much worse in North Korea.
And it won’t enjoy a common market of the kind East Germans were able to tap
into after 1990.

The challenges run far beyond those faced by Germany. Even highend estimates for
reunification only get the North’s per capita income to 80% of the South’s.
Really, we could be talking about $6 trillion or $8 trillion to finish the job.
Tags: Корея

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