Азиатские тигры (igor_tiger) wrote,
Азиатские тигры
igor_tiger

Енпсиндо: развитие ситуации (2)

30 ноября КНДР официально подтвердила расширение своей ядерной программы, заявив о нескольких тысячах действующих центрифуг на предприятии по обогащению урана, сообщает агентство Рейтер со ссылкой на северокорейские СМИ.
«В настоящее время строительство легководного реактора идет полным ходом. Для того, чтобы обеспечить его топливом, функционирует предприятие, оборудованное несколькими
 тысячами центрифуг», - пишет центральный печатный орган Трудовой партии Кореи
 «Нодон Синмун».

Центральное телеграфное агентство Кореи (ЦТАК) отмечает, что «в будущем развитие объектов ядерной энергетики с мирными целями станет еще более активным».


Вашингтон: Китай обязан предостеречь КНДР от «воинственного поведения»
Правительство Китая обязано
 сказать властям Северной Кореи о том, что она должна прекратить свое

воинственное поведение, заявил представитель Белого дома Роберт Гиббс.

Соответствующая реакция Вашингтона последовала на признание властей КНДР, которые сообщили, что на заводе по обогащению урана, существование которого до
 недавнего времени скрывалось, работают тысячи центрифуг.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/rolling_news/2010/11/101130_rn_gibbs_china_korea.shtml



Южная Корея  намерена жестко реагировать в дальнейшем на возникновение возможных инцидентов

с КНДР и считает сейчас неуместным
 возобновление шестисторонних переговоров
по ядерной проблеме Корейского полуострова.

Об этом заявил во вторник российским журналистам посол Южной Кореи Ли Юн Хо.

«В случае признаков новых провокаций мы будем отвечать решительными действиями», - сказал посол. Он
  выразил уверенность в том, что вероятность новых инцидентов сохраняется.

Что касается диалога с КНДР и попыток урегулировать ситуацию путем переговоров, Ли Юн Хо сказал, что в
 Сеуле выступают за диалог, но не собираются вести его ради самого диалога.

«Позиция Южной Кореи заключена в том, что для возобновления диалога «шестёрки» Северная Корея должна
 показать свою твердую волю к денуклеаризации конкретными шагами», - подчеркнул

 посол.

«Демонстрация завода по
 обогащению урана и провокация на острове Йонпхёндо убедили Сеул в том, что
 сейчас не время проводить шестисторонние переговоры», - сказал Ли Юн Хо.

http://www.rian.ru/world/20101130/302686186.html



Генсек ООН Пан Ги Мун встревожен ситуацией вокруг недавнего инцидента между Южной Кореей и

КНДР в Жёлтом море и призывает не допускать дальнейшего обострения.

«Я думаю, что заинтересованные стороны обсуждают очень серьёзно, как сократить напряженность

 на Корейском полуострове, и решать все эти вопросы. Прежде всего на Корейском полуострове не должно быть неспровоцированных атак», - заявил Пан Ги Мун во
 вторник в эксклюзивном интервью РИА Новости.

По его словам, он обеспокоен ситуацией и как генеральный секретарь ООН, и как гражданин Республики Корея.
«Это один из самых тяжелых инцидентов со времени окончания Корейской войны», - сказал Пан Ги Мун, напомнив, что он ранее уже опубликовал заявление, призывающее к сдержанности и

осуждающее удар КНДР.

«Я понимаю, что заинтересованные стороны обсуждают этот вопрос серьезно, и как генеральный

 секретарь ООН призываю к тому, чтобы все различия во мнениях урегулировались мирно,  и ООН всегда готова содействовать такому прогрессу при обращении
 заинтересованных сторон», - заявил он.

Генсек ООН при этом отметил роль Китая как ближайшего соседа Кореи.
«Китай всегда был активно вовлечен в этот процесс... Я думаю, что заинтересованные стороны обсуждают
 очень серьезно, как сократить напряженность на Корейском полуострове и решать

все эти вопросы», - заключил Пан Ги Мун.

http://www.rian.ru/world/20101130/302757333.html



Южная Корея не имеет планов свержения власти в Пхеньяне, заявил южнокорейский посол в Москве Ли Юн Хо.
«У нас нет планов свержения власти в Северной Корее», - сказал Ли Юн Хо в ответ на просьбу РИА Новости
 прокомментировать раскрытые на сайте WikiLeaks конфиденциальные данные о том,

что в США и Южной Корее планировали воссоединение двух государств.

«Военная стратегия Сеула заключается в том, что мы проводим только оборонительные учения, не

направленные на агрессию», - отметил Ли Юн Хо.

Вместе с тем он подчеркнул, что Сеул может дать ответ на «провокации» со стороны КНДР. «Мы надеемся, что
 войны не будет, но важно посмотреть, какими будут эти провокации», - сказал

посол.

http://www.rian.ru/world/20101130/302674508.html



КНДР держит глобальную интригу
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/30/world/asia/30korea.html?ref=asia

With North Korea reeling from economic and succession crises, American and South Korean  officials early this year secretly began gaming out what would happen if the
 North, led by one of the world’s most brutal family dynasties, collapsed.

Over an official lunch in late February, a top South Korean diplomat confidently told the American ambassador, Kathleen Stephens, that the fall would come “two to three years” after the death of Kim Jong-il, the country’s ailing leader, Ms. Stephens later cabled Washington. A new, younger generation of Chinese leaders “would be comfortable with a reunited Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the United States in a benign alliance,” the diplomat, Chun Yung-woo, predicted.
But if Seoul was destined to control the entire Korean Peninsula for the first time since the end of World War II, China — the powerful ally that keeps the North alive with food and fuel — would have
 to be placated. So South

Korea
was already planning to assure Chinese companies that they would have ample commercial opportunities in the mineral-rich northern part of the peninsula.

As for the United States,
 the cable said, “China would clearly ‘not welcome’ any U.S. military presence north of the DMZ,” the heavily mined demarcation line that
 now divides the two Koreas.

This trove of cables ends in February, just before North Korea began a series of military actions that has hrown some of Asia’s most prosperous countries into crisis. A month after the lunch, the North is believed to have

 launched a torpedo attack on the Cheonan, a South Korean warship, that killed 46 sailors.

Three weeks ago it revealed the existence of a uranium enrichment plant, potentially giving it a new pathway to make nuclear bomb material. And last
  week it shelled a South Korean island, killing two civilians and two marines
 and injuring many more.

None of that was predicted in the dozens of State Department cables about North Korea obtained by WikiLeaks, and in fact even China, the North’s
 closest ally, has often been startlingly wrong, the cables show. But the documents help explain why some South Korean and American officials suspect
 that the military outbursts may be the last snarls of a dying dictatorship.

They also show that talk of the North’s collapse may be rooted more in hope than in any real strategy: similar predictions were made in 1994 when the
 country’s founder, Kim Il-sung, suddenly died, leaving his son to run the most
 isolated country in Asia. And a Chinese expert warned, according to an American
 diplomat, that Washington was deceiving itself once again if it believed that “North Korea would implode after Kim Jong-il’s

 death.”

The cables about North Korea — some emanating from Seoul, some from  Beijing, many based on interviews with government officials, and others with scholars,
 defectors and other experts — are long on educated guesses and short on facts,
 illustrating why their subject is known as the Black Hole of Asia. Because they

 are State Department documents, not intelligence reports, they do not include the most secret American assessments, or the American military’s plans in case North Korea disintegrates or lashes out.

They contain loose talk and confident predictions of the end of the dynasty that has ruled North Korea for 65 years. Those discussions were fueled by a rash of previously undisclosed defections of ranking North Korean

diplomats, who secretly sought refuge in the South.

But they were also influenced by a remarkable period of turmoil inside North Korea, including an economic crisis set off by the government’s failed effort to
 revalue the currency and sketchy intelligence suggesting that the North’s
 military might not abide the rise of Mr. Kim’s son Kim Jong-un, who was
 recently made a four-star general despite having no military experience.

The cables reveal that in private, the Chinese, long seen as North Korea’s last protectors against the West,

 occasionally provide the Obama administration with colorful assessments of the state of play in North Korea.

 Chinese officials themselves sometimes even laugh about the frustrations of dealing with North Korean paranoia. In April 2009, just before a North Korean
 nuclear test, He Yafei, the Chinese vice foreign minister, told American
 officials at a lunch that the country wanted direct talks with the United
 States and to get them was acting like a "spoiled child" to get the
 attention of the "adult."

When James B. Steinberg, the deputy secretary of state, sat down in September 2009 with one of China’s

 most powerful officials, Dai Bingguo, state councilor for foreign affairs, Mr. Dai joked that in a recent visit to North Korea he “did not dare” to be too candid with the ailing and mercurial North Korean leader. But the Chinese
 official reported that although Kim Jong-il had apparently suffered a stroke
 and had obviously lost weight, he still had a “sharp mind” and retained his
 reputation among Chinese officials as “quite a good drinker.” (Mr. Kim
 apparently assured Mr. Dai during a two-hour conversation in Pyongyang, the capital, that his infirmities had not forced him to give up alcohol.)

But reliable intelligence about Mr. Kim’s drinking habits, it turns out, does not extend to his nuclear program, about which even the Chinese seem to be
 in the dark.

On May 13, 2009, as American satellites showed unusual activity at North Korea’s nuclear test site, officials in Beijing said they were “unsure” that
 North Korean “threats of another nuclear test were serious.” As it turns out,
 the North Koreans detonated a test bomb just days later.

Soon after, Chinese officials predicted that negotiations intended to pressure the North to disarm would be “shelved for a few months.” They have
 never resumed.

The cables also show that almost as soon as the Obama administration came to office, it started raising alarms that the North was buying up
 components to enrich uranium, opening a second route for it to build nuclear
 weapons. (Until now, the North’s arsenal has been based on its production of
 plutonium, but its production capacity has been halted.)

In June 2009, at a lunch in Beijing  shortly after the North Korean nuclear test, two senior Chinese Foreign

Ministry officials reported that China’s experts believed “the enrichment was only in its initial phases.” In fact, based on what the North
 Koreans revealed this month, an industrial-scale enrichment plant was already

 under construction. It was apparently missed by both American and Chinese
 intelligence services.

The cables make it clear that the South Koreans believe that internal tensions in the North have reached a boiling point. In January of this year, South Korea’s foreign minister, who later resigned, reported to a visiting American official
  that the South Koreans saw an “increasingly chaotic” situation in the North.

In confidence, he told the American official, Robert R. King, the administration’s special envoy for North Korean human rights issues, that a
 number of “high-ranking North Korean officials working overseas” had recently

 defected to the South. Those defections were being kept secret, presumably to give American and South Korean intelligence agencies time to harvest the
 defectors’ knowledge.

But the cables also reveal that the South Koreans see their strategic interests in direct conflict with China’s,

creating potentially huge diplomatic tensions over the future of the Korean Peninsula.

The South Koreans complain bitterly that China is content with the status quo of a nuclear North Korea, because they fear that a collapse would unleash a flood of North Korean refugees over the Chinese border and lead to the loss of
  a “buffer zone” between China  and the American forces in South Korea.

At one point, Ambassador Stephens reported to Washington, a senior South Korean official told her that “unless China pushed North Korea to the ‘brink of collapse,’ ” the North would refuse to take meaningful steps

to give up its nuclear program.

Mr. Chun, now the South Korean national security adviser, complained to Ambassador Stephens during their lunch that China had little commitment to the multination talks intended to force North Korea to dismantle its nuclear arsenal. The Chinese, he said, had chosen Wu Dawei to
 represent Beijing at the talks. According to the cable, Mr. Chun called Mr. Wu the country’s “
 ‘most incompetent official,’ an arrogant, Marx-spouting former Red Guard who
 ‘knows nothing about North Korea, nothing about non-proliferation.’ ”

But the cables show that when it comes to the critical issue of succession, even the Chinese know little of the man who would be North Korea’s next ruler: Kim Jong-un.
As recently as February 2009, the American Consulate in Shanghai — a
 significant collection point for intelligence about North Korea — sent cables
 reporting that the Chinese who knew North Korea best disbelieved the rumors
 that Kim Jong-un was being groomed to run the country. Several Chinese scholars

 with good contacts in the North said they thought it was likely that “a group of high-level military officials” would take over, and that “at least for the
 moment none of KJI’s three sons is likely to be tapped to succeed him.” The
 oldest son was dismissed as “too much of a playboy,” the middle son as “more
 interested in video games” than governing. Kim Jong-un, they said, was too
 young and inexperienced.

But within months, a senior Chinese diplomat, Wu Jianghao, was telling his American counterparts that Kim Jong-il was using nuclear tests and missile
  launchings as part of an effort to put his third son in place to succeed him,
 despite his youth.

“Wu opined that the rapid pace of provocative actions in North Korea was due to Kim Jong-il’s declining health and might be part of a gambit under which
 Kim Jong-il would escalate tensions with the United States so that his
 successor, presumably Kim Jong-un, could then step in and ease those tensions,”
 the embassy reported back to Washington in June 2009.

But carrying out plans for an easy ascension may be more difficult than expected, some are quoted as saying. In February of this year the American
 Consulate in Shenyang reported rumors that Kim Jong-un “had a hand” in the
 decision to revalue the North’s currency, which wiped out the scarce savings of
 most North Koreans and created such an outcry that one official was executed
 for his role in the sudden financial shift. The cables also describe secondhand
 reports of palace intrigue in the North, with other members of the Kim family

 preparing to serve as regents to Kim Jong-un — or to unseat him after Kim
 Jong-il’s death.



Обстрел Йонпхёндо объединил южнокорейское общество вокруг жёсткой политики в отношении КНДР.
Среди южнокорейской молодёжи растут милитаристские настроения.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/11/29/AR2010112903091.html)

SEOUL - With a brazen daytime artillery barrage of a civilian-inhabited island, North Korea's reclusive leaders may have achieved something that had previously eluded South Korea's president, Lee Myung-bak: uniting

the South Korean public around a more aggressive policy toward the North.

Lee took office in 2008 vowing to end the decade-long "sunshine policy" of his two predecessors, which increased political and economic
 ties with North Korea as a way of reducing military tension on the Korean Peninsula.

 But Lee found the Korean public deeply divided, with little appetite among many for a return to a more confrontational approach.

After North Korea torpedoed and sank a South Korean naval warship, the Cheonan, in March, killing 46 sailors, South Korean opinion was sharply split, with a large number of
 young people not believing the official government-led report that found Pyongyang responsible for the attack.

The split largely reflected what analysts and average Koreans agreed was a generational divide.
Older Koreans, especially those who fought in the Korean War or had a living memory of it, were vastly more inclined to view North Korea as a hostile enemy to be confronted. Young people, particularly those in their 20s

 who came of age during the sunshine policy, had no interest in a conflict and
 were just as inclined to disbelieve their own political leaders as to blame
 North Korea.

But North Korea's Nov. 23 attack on Yeonpyeong island, which killed two civilians and two soldiers, may be narrowing that divide.
"My generation is only thinking about resolving the situation peacefully without war. My parents always factored in war as a
 possibility," said Choi So-young, 22, a civil engineering student at Yonsei University

in Seoul. "My view has changed about North Korea. This is the first time in my life I'm thinking about war."

Another student, Byun Jong-kuk, 25, who is studying political science at Yonsei, said, "Definitely there is a generation gap."
"The older generation was educated with the anti-communist focus," Byun added. "But people in their 20s, we've gone to high
 school and university under the government's sunshine policy. I think the gap
 was very vivid during the Cheonan sinking. But the country is unified
 now."

In another part of the city, where a group of octogenarian Korean War veterans gathered Monday for their monthly buffet lunch followed by a chat in
 the next-door coffee shop, the talk was much the same - about the latest North
 Korean provocation, the government's response and South Korea's youth.

Lee Chong-sik, 81, a retired lieutenant colonel who still carries shrapnel in his back from the 1950-53 war, said the policy of outreach to the North "ruined" many
 of South Korea's
 youth.

"Young people have no knowledge of history," he said.

"They are educated to think 'we don't want war.'
You can't expect them to fight for the country."
But he added: "Since the Yeonpyeong attack, young people realize we should not sit idly by."
Shim Ho-eun, 84, also a retired lieutenant colonel, agreed that the attack may have been "a wake-up call."
"We grew up in a hard time, in poverty," Shim said, slicing the air with his hand for emphasis. "The young generation grew up in a more prosperous time. I think
 maybe they are lacking in patriotism. Maybe this Yeonpyeong case is a chance for them to renew their patriotism."

The old vets were highly critical of the sunshine policy, launched by Kim Dae-jung in 1998 and continued by his successor, Roh Moo-hyun. The policy
 saw some dramatic successes, including the establishment of an industrial park
 six miles north of the demilitarized zone, and the first summit of the
 presidents of North and South Korea in 2000. Kim was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize that year.

The older Koreans also spoke in bitter terms about South Korea's education system, which they said failed to inculcate young students about the
 threat the country faced. Before the end of military rule in South Korea,

 extreme anti-communism was a staple of classrooms. But conservative critics complain that under South

Korea
's new democracy, anti-communism has been replaced by "leftist" teaching that plays down the threat from the
 North.

Lee Nae-Young, a political scientist at Korea University, said, "The recent Yeonpyeong attack clearly has narrowed the gap between the old and new generations' perceptions on North Korea and how South Korea should respond to North Korean provocations."
Although there still would be differences about exactly how the country should respond to future attacks, he said: "After the Yeonpyeong provocation, North Korea has become definitely more of an enemy state than a brother state. There has been a consensus that it is unrealistic to deal with North Korea  through dialogues, and the Yeonpyeong attack has been a crucial moment to confirm that consensus."
President Lee was alluding to that emerging new consensus in his address to the nation Monday morning. Outlining a series of North Korean attacks
 stretching back two decades, he said South Korea's policy of restraint had only emboldened the Pyongyang regime to continue its provocative acts.

Saying he was "outraged by the ruthlessness of the North Korean regime," Lee added: "There was a split in public opinion over the
 torpedoing of the Cheonan. Unlike that time, our people have united as one this

time."

Byun, the political science student, said it might have taken a dramatic incident like the attack on Yeonpyeong to shake young people out of their
 complacency. "The young generation doesn't know," he said. "When

they were born, there was freedom and peace."

He added, switching to English from Korean: "The young generation doesn't know about freedom and how to achieve it. It's a big problem."



Ли Мён-бак взял ответственность за неспособность защитить страну «Южная Корея изменит свою долгосрочную
 политику, не соответствующую военным вызовам, исходящим от Севера», - обещает президент
 Р.Корея.

По словам Ли, политика толерантности и великодушия привела к росту числа провокаций.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/11/28/AR2010112804537.html)

"In the past, North Korea has provoked us on many occasions, but this is the first time they have made a direct attack on South Korean
 soil," said Lee, making his first public remarks since the Nov. 23 attack on civilian-inhabited Yeonpyeong island heightened fears of an all-out
 conflict. "Launching a military attack on civilians is a crime against
 humanity, even during wartime."

Lee said South Korea  tolerated the provocations "in the belief that one day North Korea will change, and because of our hope for peace on the Korean Peninsula." He said South Korea has continued to engage in talks with Pyongyang and has given humanitarian  assistance to the economically troubled country, but North Korea continued its pursuit of nuclear weapons and continued its attacks.
Now, Lee said, "South Koreans realize that tolerance and generosity bring more provocation."

He said that South Korea would strengthen its military capability and would "make North Korea pay the due price by all means for its provocation from now on."

Baek Seung-joo, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense  Analysis, called the speech "a turning point for South Korean government
 policy dealing with North Korea...With the nation's support, Lee will make sure any further provocation is met with military action."

North Korea, for its part, showed no sign of backing down, saying in the commentary reported by the South Korean news agency Yonhap
 that, "If internal and external war maniacs make a provocation again, we

 will counter it without hesitation, grub up the base of the aggressors entirely and cleanse the root cause of war clearly."

In North Korea,
 where the media and other channels of communication are tightly controlled by
 the government, such commentaries are akin to official government statements.

The attack on the island exposed weaknesses in the South Korean defense system, which the government has in recent days promised to mend. South Korean
  troops took 13 minutes to return artillery fire - and by that time, scores of
 houses and buildings were already destroyed.

The military has since announced plans to upgrade its weaponry and to give front-line troops more flexible rules of engagement.
The attack has also become a political crisis for the government, forcing the resignation of the defense minister, who took the blame for the
  delayed response. Lee was criticized for not taking a tougher line against the
  North.

North Korea fired nearly 200 artillery rounds onto Yeonpyeong, which lies close to the two countries'

disputed maritime border.

Over the weekend, North Korea seemed to offer an apology of sorts for the deaths of the two civilians, saying, "If that is true, it is very
 regrettable." But the North blamed Seoul's military, for putting civilians in the way of its artillery as "human
 shields."

The U.S.-South Korean military exercises are intended "to send a very powerful signal of deterrence," Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the
 Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a television interview on CNN.

North Korea has responded that it will turn the entire area into "a merciless shower of fire"

if its territorial waters are violated.

The drills are taking place about 75 miles south of  Yeonpyeong. South Korea's Yonhap news agency said the E-8C joint surveillance target attack radar system, known as STARS, had been deployed to detect any North Korean air activity during the drill.
The crisis has placed intense pressure on China to try to rein in its erratic and unpredictable North Korean ally. After refusing to criticize Pyongyang for the attack, China scrambled its diplomats over the weekend, including sending Dai Bingguo - China's equivalent of the national security adviser - to Seoul for talks.
KCNA also reported on Monday that the North's reclusive leader, Kim Jung
 Il, attended a performance of the national orchestra along with his son and
  designated successor, Kim Jong Eun. The report did not say when the concert
  took place.

The news service released photos showing the ruler and his son with Kim Myong-guk, a four-star general who is chief of the North Korean People's Army
 general staff. Analysts in South Korea said the photo may have been meant as a signal that the Pyongyang leadership remains united - and that the elder Kim himself may have ordered the attack.

Analysts said the photos were taken close to several islands with artillery batteries, and surmised that Kim Jong Il may have been visiting the
 site where the attack on Yeonpyeong was launched.

On Sunday, China called for an emergency meeting of delegates to the long-disbanded six-party
 talks, which include the United States, North and South Korea, China, Japan  and Russia.

 But South Korean officials said they told the Chinese privately that they were not interested in talks at the moment, and some expressed surprise that China made the announcement publicly.

"There was a mention by the Chinese side about the six-party talks,
 but it was not discussed seriously," Hong

Sang-pyo
, South Korea
's presidential spokesman, was quoted telling reporters. He said Lee told Dai in

the meeting that "it is not an appropriate time" for negotiations.

The United States also has dismissed the idea of talks now. Mullen, speaking Sunday on CNN, said,

"I am one who believes we shouldn't be rewarding bad behavior here."

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), speaking on a separate CNN show, singled out
China for not doing more. "The key to this, obviously, is China," he said. "And unfortunately, China is not behaving as a responsible world power."

China "could bring the North Korean economy to its knees if they wanted to," McCain said.

 "And I cannot believe that the Chinese should, in a mature fashion, not find it in their interest to restrain North Korea. So far, they are not."

McCain also said that North Korea is "a very unstable regime"
  and called for regime change, but stressed that he meant by peaceful means.
Tags: Корея
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