Pax Americana идёт на дно
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/oct/29/managing-decline/
America's global military footprint (outside of Iraq and Afghanistan)
tops $250 billion a year. There are still 200 U.S. military facilities in
Germany 65 years after World War II. U.S. military hospitals as an intermediary
stage home for U.S. casualties in transit from Afghanistan and Iraq are
important. All else is marginal. If U.S. Central Commandand Special Operations
Command can be in Tampa, Fla., why not U.S. European Command in Norfolk, Va.,
where NATO's Atlantic command is based?
World War II hastened the end of the British Empire, but it took several
decades to manage its decline. The partition of India and the creation of
Pakistan in 1947 triggered a bloodbath that took 1 million lives.
There were several more last gasps of empire before a British government
decided in October 2010 to live within its means, slashing defense to where it
no longer could be used to defend the Falkland Islands against another
Argentine invasion, as it did successfully in 1982.
In the mid-1950s, British-controlled Aden, Yemen, was the world's
largest bunkering port, servicing traffic in and out of the Red Sea and Suez
Canal. But in 1967, Britain took another drubbing as it exited Aden. Then, a
year later, London, under Laborite Harold Wilson, gave up all of its commitments
and obligations east of Suez, from the canal to the Persian Gulf to Singapore.
It took another 10 years to turn over Hong Kong to its original owner.
From Oman, at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, all the way up to
Kuwait, Britain kept the peace until 1972 with the British-officered Trucial
Oman Scouts for a total annual outlay of $40 million. The Nixon Doctrine
succeeded Pax Britannica in the Gulf, and the shah of Iran became America's
proxy.
The shah was overthrown in 1979, and a hostile, obscurantist religious
dictatorship has kept the rest of the Gulf in psychological thrall ever since.
The French empire unraveled with 16 years of rear-guard fighting
(1946-54 and 1954-62) - eight years in Indochina, followed by a six-month break
before another eight years of warfare in Algeria. World War II hero Charles de
Gaulle rode to the rescue and managed decline by putting France on the road to
modernity - with nuclear weapons and a new high-tech vision of the future
(which produced the Caravel and the supersonic Concorde).
Is the time at hand for a new leader to manage the decline of the modern
American empire? Iraq clearly was an expensive geopolitical illusion, a weird
concoction of motives inspired by neocons who thought they were making Israel
more secure.
Precisely the opposite was achieved. Seven years and $1 trillion later,
Iran has more influence in Iraq than the United States. Its agents are dropping
off the occasional million-dollar bundle to keep Afghan President Hamid
Karzai's chief of staff sweet and compliant.
Psychologically, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is more beholden to
Tehran these days than to Washington. After the United States coughed up $1
trillion it didn't have to fight the Iraq war, Baghdad still has less electric
power than it had under Saddam Hussein.
None of our modern knuckleheaded empire builders, who thought they
perceived Israel's interests more clearly than the rest of the country,
understood that Saddam, albeit a cruel dictator, was our best defense against
Iranian expansionism.
In 1980, Saddam had taken on the evil empire next door. But Iran's
obscurantist zealots used teenagers with golden keys to paradise to walk across
Iraqi minefields, and a million dead and eight years later, the two Gulf giants
fought themselves to a Mexican standoff.
The decline of the American empire may be hastened by another war in the
Gulf - this time triggered by Israeli and/or U.S. bombs on Iran's nuclear
installations. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appears to be pushing his
luck by moving Iran's frontiers to Israel's borders - with Hezbollah to the
north in Lebanon, Syria to the east and Hamas in Gaza to the south.
Iran's medieval hawks have convinced themselves that an asymmetrical
Gulf war would speed up the end of what they call "American imperial
colonialism."
The burdens of a global Pax Americana have shunted domestic priorities
off center stage. Long postponed and now increasingly urgent infrastructure
projects are pending.
Bridges, roads, railroads, airports (from runways to terminals to
air-traffic control), schools and hospitals all have deteriorated to what
author Arianna Huffington's new book describes in the title - "Third World
America." One trillion dollars' worth of urgent infrastructure is in
arrears.
The once-acclaimed Acela Express in the Eastern corridor is an
embarrassing joke next to the high-speed trains of Europe, Japan and China. A
bullet train that covers the equivalent mileage of Washington to New York in 90
minutes made its debut last week on China's rapid-rail network of
At the same time, the United States is awash with unemployed - pushing
18 million if one includes those who have given up looking and whose benefits
have run out. Surely this points to a domestic Marshall Plan for a high-tech
renaissance. But the current political rumblings - from the Tea Party to
ultraliberal kibitzing - leave little hope for a quiescent phase of historical
reawakening.
Meanwhile, China continues to spread its worldwide influence - without
the military. Its new supercomputer just beat America's, with a speed of 1.4
quadrillion operations per second.