Азиатские тигры (igor_tiger) wrote,
Азиатские тигры

Когда Корея падёт....

Does a unified Korea retain its close alliance with the United States?
Does it keep the North's nuclear arsenal?
Do American troops stay in the country?
If the answer to all three questions is "yes," then a unified Korea will be an American ally, with American troops, and nuclear weapons -- sitting on China's border.
How is Beijing likely to react to that? Would it move troops in to shore up the regime? What would South Korean and American forces do then?
When North Korea collapses, it is easy to imagine chaos on the Korean peninsula that triggers a series of reactions from Beijing and Washington that are competing and hostile. Forget genteel rows over the yuan's value -- this is what could produce serious geopolitical instability. And that's why it's crucial that the United States, China and South Korea  start talking about "black swans."

....Koreans remember the world's last such experiment. Ten years after the reunification of Germany, there remain deep scars and persistent tension between the two lands. Five percent of German GDP has been devoted to unification -- for a decade! The Korean case is far more dramatic. North Korea is much bigger and much poorer than was East Germany

Фарид Закария. Когда Корея падёт... (The Washington Post)

Tags: Корея
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