Азиатские тигры (igor_tiger) wrote,
Азиатские тигры

Стратегия Китая

The National Interest публикует интересную статью Мишеля Грина (Michael J. Green) от 2 сентября под заголовком «Китай агрессор?»
Хотя, собственно говоря, основной текст статьи составляют выдержки из августовского выступления члена Госсовета КНР Даи Бинго об основных направлениях в китайской внешней политике.
Статья очень интересная и для любителей геополитики:

Ещё более интересен заголовок, поставленный автором.
Особенно, с учётом выводов Даи Бинго о внешней политике:
«We will continue to seek a «strategic partnership» with Washington  in the long-run, though we recognize the Obama administration is no more willing to use this title than was Bush.
We will resist calls from outside experts to create a G-2 between the United States and China.
We will continue moving in the direction of a bipolar condominium with Washington based on mutual respect for core interests and non-interference in internal affairs and a recognition that China is becoming the most important power center in Asia.
We have continued building a multipolar world. And we have done this without direct confrontation with the United States».

О какой «угрозе» речь?

….Our foreign policy strategy flows from the principles of peaceful development and a harmonious society.
We will utilize international institutions and forums such as the UN Security Council, the ASEAN Plus Three, the Shanghai  Cooperation Organization and the Six Party Talks.
Our influence has grown without dangerous entanglements that might complicate economic growth.

….The greatest threats to the territorial integrity of China also remain internal, but with dangerous external links. I refer to the dangers of splittism in Xinjiang, Tibet and Taiwan.

….Strategic trends on the Korean peninsula have generally been favorable to us.
Ten years ago we provided 50% of North Korea’s food and fuel; today the numbers are closer to 80%. South Korean economic dependence on China  has also grown and President Roh Moo-hyun weakened U.S.-Korea-Japan ties in recognition of this (though he did reject our proposal for a China-DPRK-ROK trilateral forum to replace the U.S.-Japan-ROK Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group, or TCOG).
Recently, however, we may be seeing some reversal of these positive trends.
We must counter these setbacks by encouraging a return to the Six Party Talks and a quick end to pressure tactics, by urging North Korea to cease provocative actions.

….We can no longer count on Europe to be a counterbalance against American unipolarity as we could in the days of Chirac and Schroeder, but neither should we worry that Europe will coalesce behind any strategy to contain China.

….ASEAN is also an inward looking and divided actor with even less cohesion than the EU.

….Singapore has been playing a double game, telling us that they wish to see more Chinese economic leadership in the region while urging the Americans to increase their diplomatic and military presence

….Indonesia is returning as a major factor in ASEAN politics, divided between its Islamic, democratic and developing nation status.

….Malaysia under Najib could become a problem for us, and the Prime Minister’s embrace of Washington must be monitored carefully.

….Vietnam remains an insolent southern neighbor and is attempting now to draw the United States in to strengthen its illegitimate claim to the South China Sea. However, elements within the leadership troika in Hanoi may become more sympathetic to their common ideological interests with China after the leadership change in Vietnam’s January Party Congress.

….We will be able to neutralize the Philippines in this dispute using our usual channels and funds, but Vietnam, Malaysia and even Indonesia appear to be welcoming Clinton’s unwarranted intervention and her Cold War logic about freedom of navigation.

….India has become a larger factor in China’s foreign policy strategy.
The United States now exercises more with India than any other bilateral partner, including NATO countries, Japan and Australia, and Japan and Australia have both signed a series of cooperative agreements with the Indian Navy. Indian propaganda about the “China threat” to Aksai Chin, Arunachal Pradesh and the “string of pearls” from Burma to Sri Lanka and Gwadar in Pakistan must be countered.

И, в заключение, три главных рекомендации:
ONE, we must avoid containment or counterbalancing strategies among democratic states on our periphery;
TWO, we must avoid colored revolutions in North Korea or Myanmar and the replacement of the current regimes with pro-U.S. democracies on our borders;
THREE, we must avoid conflict with the United States.
Tags: Китай-США
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