Азиатские тигры (igor_tiger) wrote,
Азиатские тигры

Когда не помогает кнут

Санкции против Северной Кореи не срабатывали ни тогда, ни срабатывают сейчас

Since North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006, the UN Security Council has approved seven sanctions resolutions against North Korea, each adding strictures tougher than those before. The full list, aimed at ending North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, includes: Resolution 1718 (2006); Resolution 1874 (2009); Resolutions 2087 and 2094 (2013); Resolutions 2270 and 2321 (2016); and, just last week, Resolution 2371.
According to UN voting records, all seven of these UN resolutions were approved 15-0. In other words, over the past 11 years, not only China and Russia, but the full panoply of all 10 rotating members of the Security Council, with their two-year terms, have been voting yes to every UN sanctions resolution passed against North Korea. Yet North Korea has now conducted five nuclear tests, amassed a nuclear arsenal and demonstrated with two successful tests last month that it has mastered the technology to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile.
The argument in support of the latest sanctions is that they are the toughest ever, backed by U.S. economic muscle and fresh resolve. But even with America’s economic reach, there are limits to U.S. jurisdiction. There are plenty of agents in North Korea, China, Russia, the Middle East and beyond, who are adept at dodging sanctions. It can take a lot less time to set up networks of front companies than to track them down and blacklist them.
And while UN sanctions resolutions are officially binding on all member states, the UN has no power to force compliance. Individual member states are officially required to submit reports to the UN on how they plan to police their own turf. Many don’t bother. As of August 3, according to UN data, only 77 countries, or fewer than half the UN’s 193 member states, had submitted reports on how they plan to comply with UN sanctions resolution 2321, adopted unanimously more than eight months ago, on Nov. 30, 2016.
But let us for the sake of argument suppose that China and Russia finally change course, fully cooperate with all those UN sanctions they’ve voted for, and that this suffices to bring North Korea to the bargaining table. What then?
Don’t get your hopes up. North Korea’s totalitarian system, as long as it endures, makes it virtually impossible to ensure full monitoring and compliance even when a deal is struck. And North Korea’s totalitarian Kim dynasty has a record of cheating on every nuclear deal it has made, from the 1994 Agreed Framework reached by President Bill Clinton to the 2007 Six-Party deal, hosted by China and reached on the watch of President George W. Bush.
In 2012, shortly after Kim Jong Un inherited power following the death of his father, President Obama attempted a deal imposing a moratorium on North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests. That fell apart two weeks later, when North Korea tested a long-range missile.

If sanctions and talks won’t work, what can be done? The only real answer is that the Kim regime must go, quite preferably without a hot war — if past prevarications have left any way to avoid it. The urgent questions need to center not on how to bring North Korea to the bargaining table, but whether there are still any means short of fire and fury to bring down the Kim regime.

В тему цугцванга: http://igor-tiger.livejournal.com/2034543.html
Tags: Корея

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