2014-й год стал очень рисковым для системы международной безопасности.
Скажем прямо: прежняя конструкция международной безопасности дала сбой, рухнула – возникла проблема в построении новой безпековой системы. Применительно к современным международным реалиям.
2015-й безопаснее не станет. На первый взгляд, какой-либо «глобальной третьей мировой» все нет и нет. Но тем временем, в т.н. «локальных» (региональных) конфликтах погибло уже больше, чем за несколько предыдущих десятилетий.
Foreign Policy подготовил обзор фронтов 2015-го:
№1. Ирак, Сирия и ИГИЛ, №2. Украина,
№3. Южный Судан, №4. Нигерия, №5. Сомали, №6. ДР Конго,
№7. Афганистан, №8. Йемен, №9. Ливия и №10. Венесуэла
Об «украинском фронте» дословно:
«Ukraine may not be the world’s deadliest crisis, but it has transformed relations between Russia and the West for the worse. More than 5,000 people have been killed in eastern Ukraine since open conflict began in March 2014, including about 1,000 after a cease-fire was declared on Sept. 5. The onset of winter could add a new dimension to the crisis: The population in the separatist-held eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk will have to make ends meet with little in the way of heating, medicine, food, or money, which are all in short supply due to the collapse of the local economy and a tightening of financial screws by Kiev. The separatist leadership has created few functioning government institutions, has almost no trained officials, and will not be able to respond to any humanitarian emergency on its own.
There are glimmers of hope. Though Moscow continues to support the tiny breakaway “republics” created in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, its enthusiasm for the separatists is waning. It has not recognized them, and now stresses openly that their future lies within the boundaries of Ukraine.
However, the situation remains unpredictable. The beginning of 2015 is unlikely to see either side impose its will militarily — but as both have influential pro-war lobbies, they might be tempted to try. Other parts of Ukraine’s southeast — areas like Kharkiv and Zaporizhia, relatively quiet until now — could grow restive if Moscow stirs things up, perhaps to open a land route to Crimea through Ukraine’s southeast. More radical separatists are certainly hoping this will happen.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko recognizes that urgent economic and political reforms are crucial to Ukraine’s long-term stability. However, he is moving slowly to implement them. The West needs to maintain political pressure on him to follow through.
In the short term, the international community’s main tasks are to separate the warring parties, encourage Kiev to reach out to its compatriots in the east, place the Ukrainian-Russia border fully under the control of international monitors, and gradually shift the conflict from armed confrontation to political negotiations. The emergence of another frozen conflict on Europe’s periphery can still be avoided — with a bit of luck, a lot of energy, and a policy toward Moscow that combines sustained pressure with potential incentives for de-escalation».