Азиатские тигры (igor_tiger) wrote,
Азиатские тигры

Опасен ли Китай для США?

Интересный анализ о влиянии китайской курсовой политики на отношения между Китаем и США.

Первая проблема – огромные валютные резервы КНР - $2,4 трлн.
Вторая проблема – крупные вложения в американские фонды - $755,4 млрд.
Больше только у японцев - $768,8 млрд.

Как быть?

If China were to end its intervention, the renminbi would appreciate substantially – likely in the region of 20-40 percent.  China would also stop accumulating dollars (and other foreign assets).  The primary effect would therefore be an effective depreciation of the US dollar against the Chinese renminbi – and against all other countries’ currencies that are implicitly pegged to the renminbi (more precisely, to the dollar rate with an eye on China’s competitiveness). Such a movement in the dollar would help expand our exports and improve our ability to compete against imports.
In another potential scenario, there is concern that China would threaten to reduce its purchases of US government securities without allowing its currency to appreciate.  But if China continues to intervene to maintain its currency peg, it will accumulate foreign reserves – so they need to hold increasing amounts of foreign assets of some kind.
If they buy other dollar denominated assets issued by US entities, this would push down spreads on those assets relative to Treasuries.  This would directly help private US borrowers – thus stimulating growth in the US.
If they directly buy dollar denominated assets issued by non-US entities, this will still reduce spreads more broadly and help US borrowers – as there is a global market for dollar assets and there is not much high grade non-US dollar debt available for sale.
If they buy dollar equities – which is most unlikely – this would help the stock market, household balance sheets, and firms’ access to funding (as well as helping to shift our economy from debt to more equity financing, which would a desirable move in any case.)
If they buy non-dollar assets, given that the Fed will keep interest rates near to zero, this will push down the value of the US dollar and help boost US growth.  Such a move would produce protests from the eurozone and Japan, but this change in currency value would be solely China’s responsibility.
If China stops buy foreign assets altogether, this would of course be equivalent to ending foreign exchange intervention.  This is exactly the policy change that we should be seeking.
The most plausible proposal is to expand the mandate of the World Trade Organization – which should operate in this respect without the involvement of the IMF – in assessing exchange manipulation on the same basis as it deals with unfair trade practices. While full implementation for such a rearrangement of responsibilities would take some years, concrete moves in this direction would concentrate the minds of the Chinese authorities in a potentially constructive manner.

Таким образом, китайская курсовая политика подобная, изначально играя против американских интересов, в конечном итоге, оборачивается против Китая.
Судя по всему, в одиночку Бейцзину с этой проблемой проблематично справиться. Без диалога с Вашингтоном не обойтись. А значит у американцев есть ещё один рычаг для продвижения новых санкций по Ирану.


Tags: Китай, США
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