Азиатские тигры (igor_tiger) wrote,
Азиатские тигры
igor_tiger

Китай-США: от партнерства к противостоянию

Los Angeles Times публикует статью по поводу китайско-американского геополитического противостояния:

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/commentary/la-oe-gompert-kelly-war-china-u-s--20130826,0,6126914.story.

«..There are several sources of friction that could cause a showdown: Chinese harassment of Japanese vessels in the disputed East China Sea could dictate a U.S. show of force in support of its ally;

U.S. naval forces could oppose a Chinese attempt to restrict freedom of the seas in the South China Sea; instability in North Korea could bring both China and the United States to consider intervening;

China might contest the presence of U.S. ships or aircraft suspected of snooping off its coast;

Taiwan could declare independence.

In such situations, an incident or mistake could transform the logic of avoiding conflict into the logic of avoiding defeat.

The People's Liberation Army, once under tight Communist Party control, now has a strong voice in war-and-peace decisions and a propensity to take chances to show that China can't be pushed around — evidenced by its menacing moves in the South and East China seas. If in a crisis China's military leaders advised its political leaders that U.S. forces were getting ready for war and China's only chance to avoid defeat was to strike early — per the approved plan — would Beijing say no? U.S. leaders are steeped in principles and procedures of civilian control, less so their Chinese counterparts.

And if at the same moment the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff and Pacific commander advised the president that the Chinese were gearing up for a preemptive strike unless U.S. forces acted quickly — again, per the plan — would Washington risk the loss of carriers, air bases, personnel and credibility by waiting?

Such events are improbable but not implausible. Although the China-U.S. agenda is jammed with pressing issues, from cyber espionage to currency rates, time must be found to improve procedures and channels to defuse crises and avert military miscalculation, lest the unthinkable becomes unavoidable. And political leaders in each capital should not wait for a crisis before scrutinizing war-fighting plans and insisting on ones that strengthen, not weaken, stability. Given the stakes, plans to win must not be allowed to make war more likely».

…Вот такая получается парадоксальная, на первый взгляд, ситуация: с одной стороны, экономическое конструктивное сотрудничество. Но с другой стороны, это не отменяет факт глобального противостояния. Такова реальность Чимерики, где каждая из сторон прекрасно понимает свое реальное место, но при этом тщательно старается "сохранить лицо".

Tags: Китай-США
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